AI Research
The reports worth your hour: investment-bank research, VC state-of-AI decks, lab and academic papers, each with an AI Lounge summary and the three numbers to remember.
Let There Be Compute! (KKR, September 2026): the AI buildout needs $6.3T beyond public investment-grade markets
Roughly $6.3 trillion of the AI infrastructure buildout through 2030 must be financed outside public investment-grade bond and equity markets.
Outlook
AI capex and required revenues (Goldman Sachs, September 2026): hyperscalers need $300B a year to break even
AI users would need to spend roughly $1 trillion a year on AI applications to justify current hyperscaler capex, versus about $1.5 trillion of total global software spending.
Report
Goldman Sachs: AI capex and higher rates are now competing for the same capital
AI infrastructure spending and rising government borrowing are competing for capital, raising costs globally
Strategy note
Goldman Sachs AI adoption tracker: 22.4% of US firms now use AI, semis on track for $863B
US business AI adoption reaches 22.4%, semiconductor revenue projected at $863B annually
Economics note
Houlihan Lokey Digital Infrastructure Update Q2 2026: data centers, fiber and towers in the AI buildout
AI infrastructure investment drives record data center, fiber and tower transactions in Q2 2026
Quarterly update
HSBC Asset Management: Venture capital, investing in the age of AI
AI is reshaping venture capital fund construction, capital concentration, liquidity dynamics, and boom-cycle risks
Investor note
Woodside Capital: A Guide to AI in 2026: 12 frontier models, tokens, capex and the SaaSpocalypse
Frontier AI models in 2026 face rising token costs, coding disruption, and five critical infrastructure bottlenecks
Market guide
Top of Mind: An AI Job Apocalypse? (Goldman Sachs, June 2026): mass job losses unlikely, displacement still real
AI likely causes worker displacement over five years, but mass job losses and apocalypse scenarios remain unlikely outcomes
Report
Goldman Sachs: what the AI capex boom does to S&P 500 profitability
AI capital spending may erode S&P 500 profitability through increased depreciation pressures on margins
Strategy note
Houlihan Lokey Digital Infrastructure Update Q1 2026: deals, valuations and the AI capacity race
AI capacity demand drives record digital infrastructure valuations and hyperscaler investment across data centers fiber and wireless
Quarterly update
Lazard: AI Impact on Technology M&A, second edition, the great SaaS bifurcation
AI bifurcates SaaS into beneficiaries and systems of record while workflow wrappers face existential risk
M&A report
AI in Vertical Software Q1 2026 (Houlihan Lokey, March 2026): US AI venture deal value doubled to $222B in 2025
Vertical AI software companies capture outsized value through domain expertise, proprietary data, and outcome-based monetization models
Report
Goldman Sachs: Will AI eat software? Top of Mind on the agentic threat to SaaS
Agentic AI tools may transform but likely won't replace software development as core business model
Top of Mind
Houlihan Lokey: AI in vertical software, moats, product strategy and M&A, Q1 2026
Embedded AI reshapes vertical software through data moats, workflow automation, and agentic customer engagement opportunities
Sector deck
Goldman Sachs: data centers will drive ~40% of US power-demand growth and push up electricity prices
Data centers projected to drive 40% of US power-demand growth, raising electricity prices amid constrained supply
Economics note
William Blair: Entering 2026 with cautious momentum. AI pricing takes hold in IT services
AI pricing models emerging across major IT services firms as Infosys and Accenture lead adoption trends
Equity research
Deutsche Bank CIO Outlook 2026: Investing in tomorrow, risks and opportunities after a volatile 2025
AI-driven equity leadership continues shaping 2026 investment strategy amid macro volatility and shifting rate environments
Annual outlook
Eye on the Market 2026 Outlook (J.P. Morgan, January 2026): 42 AI stocks drove up to 75% of S&P 500 profits
AI concentration risk: 42 stocks drove 65-75% of S&P 500 earnings since ChatGPT launch
Outlook
