AI Research
The reports worth your hour: investment-bank research, VC state-of-AI decks, lab and academic papers, each with an AI Lounge summary and the three numbers to remember.
The AI Expectations Gap (Anthropic, October 2026): 91% of Anthropic staff expect a Nobel-level AI discovery by 2030
Over half of Anthropic staff expect AI to be able to do at least 80% of their current work by 2030, compared with 5% of US workers.
Survey
What Work Can Robots Do? (Anthropic, September 2026): robots can do 74% of physical tasks, are cost competitive for 0.3%
Robots and LLMs together are exposed to about 80% of US job tasks by working time, but robots are cost competitive for only 0.3% of tasks today.
Report
Project Swap (Anthropic, September 2026): agents matched owners' preferences on 61% of pairs after a five-minute chat
In a live market of Claude agents, the model an agent ran on changed negotiating outcomes more than the instructions it was given, and the main failure was agents knowing too little about their owners.
Research paper
Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI (Anthropic, September 2026): extreme case puts GDP growth at 15% a year
The median American's expectations match a scenario in which AI lifts US GDP 8% by 2030 while cognitive employment falls 4%.
Research paper
