You can usually see your likely acquirers from public filings

Founders often hear about their best buyer from someone else, usually after a competitor has sold. You can't see every possible buyer from the outside, but public filings show more than most people expect. Three things I look at:

1. Deal filings. A US-listed company has to report a significant acquisition in an 8-K within four business days of closing: what it bought and what it paid. A few minutes in your sector's filings shows who buys, how often and how big.
2. Stake disclosures. Anyone who builds a stake above 5% in a listed company has to file a Schedule 13D, or the shorter 13G. It's a signal, not a prediction. But when a company starts building a position in one of your competitors, you've learned where its attention is.
3. Financial statements. They won't decide a deal, but they rule some buyers out. A company with little cash is unlikely to write a large check.

What none of this shows: private buyers, who don't file these forms, and intent. A buyer with the money and a track record may still not want you.

I built FAIR to do this every week for a founder's niche: rank the likely acquirers and explain why each one fits. The free plan shows the top 5, no card needed. The full write-up with the SEC sources is here: fair.x23labs.com/insights/how-buyers-are-identified?ref=lounge-1
A question for anyone here who has sold a company: which buyer did you not see coming?