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Outside tech still isn't seeing AI pay off

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 6 min read
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The most useful thing in today's news is a warning. Business spending on AI tokens grew just 0.2% in September, and some companies are cutting back because token costs are eating into margins. Buyers outside tech want to see a measurable gain, not a clever demo. Before you raise prices or add features, check what each customer costs you to serve.

Ryan Allis, founder of AI Lounge
In today's issue
  • Outside tech still waiting on AI payoff
  • Five Qwen models teaming up match Fable 5
  • Mac notch shows your Claude Code agents
  • Quick hits across the AI field
  • Formic robot round and AI Index move

Top stories

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Outside tech isn't seeing AI pay off yet

What happened: A note from Apollo's chief economist says companies outside tech are not yet getting a measurable return from AI spending.

  • Business spending on AI tokens grew just 0.2% in September, down from 42% in July, based on Ramp data.
  • 80.4% of the top 1% of AI spenders in the data cited are VC-backed.
  • A St. Louis Fed review of about 490,000 earnings calls found executives mostly describe AI productivity gains as still to come.

Why it matters: The test for your company is whether a buyer outside tech sees a margin gain, not whether your model is capable. If your product uses many tokens per customer, expect cost pushback and price with that in mind.

Five Qwen models teaming up can match Fable 5

What happened: A GitHub project reports that five Qwen3.8-27B models working together can match Fable 5 when run with the GVS5H Harness.

  • Five Qwen3.8-27B models are combined using the GVS5H Harness.
  • The post reached the Hacker News front page with 165 points and 57 comments.
  • The builders' discussion is at news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50228167.

Why it matters: If the match holds up in your own tests, a group of Qwen models may be worth comparing against the model you use now. Run your real tasks through it before you change anything.

A Mac notch app shows your Claude Code agents

What happened: Agent Notch puts a live count of waiting Claude Code agents beside the Mac notch, so you can see who needs you without switching windows.

  • A red count appears when an agent asks a question or waits for permission, and clicking a row jumps to that agent's app.
  • The app works only with Claude Code on Mac and needs macOS 14 or later.
  • It is released under the MIT License and makes no network requests except when you press Check for Updates.

Why it matters: Users running several agents want to see which one is working, which one is blocked, and how to jump to it. Any agent product that hides that state inside a terminal will feel slow to supervise.

Quick hits

  • Cerebras says it now runs trillion-parameter models, using Kimi K3, about 3 trillion parameters, as its worked example. Read →
  • zCAD AI turns plain text into editable, dimension-driven 3D parts and exports them to STEP for any CAD tool. Read →
  • A preprint of nine models finds AI text uses more inanimate subjects and rarer word patterns than human writing. Read →
  • Canva's in-house Craft image model debuted fourth on DesignArena and comes with a public API for developers. Read →
  • A 380-point Hacker News thread debates how much AI caused a loss of 200k jobs in media, film and the arts. Read →

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