Bain Asia-Pacific Private Equity Report 2026: a fragmented recovery, improving exits and the AI chapter

Deal value fell 8% in 2025 while deal count rose 6%, and the year was start-stop, with value swinging sharply from quarter to quarter. Japan was the only market to grow in both value and count. Exits were the bright spot. Bain's survey of 121 regional GPs put strong IPO markets and public market performance as the main driver, cited by 56%. IPO and open-market exit value rose more than 70% on 2024, and net distributions to investors turned positive for the first time since 2021. The recovery has gaps. Capital raised dropped 37% in value and 44% in fund count versus 2024, the fourth straight annual decline. The number of portfolio companies held more than five years rose 18%, and deal multiples reached 13.4 times EBITDA. Technology, media and telecom stayed the largest sector, but its share fell to a 10-year low. For AI founders, the report shows PE firms treating AI as a diligence and portfolio requirement. Bain partner Ben MacTiernan said it is "no longer optional" in private equity. GPs reported mixed results from AI initiatives in portfolio companies. Vendors selling into PE-backed firms will need to show measurable results, not just capability, and the growing pool of aging assets may create demand for tools that lift performance before exit.