Mantic raises $25M Seed

Radical Ventures partner Aaron Rosenberg has joined the board. He said companies and government agencies have shown interest, and hedge funds and trading firms were particularly eager for the forecasts. The company raised about $4M in pre-seed funding in 2025. Episode 1 led that round, with trading firm DRW participating. The technique is not a new model. Mantic specializes frontier models from other labs for forecasting. It tests the system on historical data, grades the results and iterates. The company says it outperformed all 676 human participants in the 2026 Metaculus Cup. One caveat: a single automated entrant, laertes, scored higher. Other AI entrants also scored high, a first for the contest. For founders, this is a case of a public, gradable benchmark turning into financing. Forecast accuracy can be checked against real outcomes over time, so claims are easier to verify than most AI capability pitches. It also shows a wrapper-style approach, built on other labs' models plus a specialized evaluation loop, drawing backing from investors tied to the labs themselves. Teams selling judgment or prediction products should expect buyers to ask for a track record on open leaderboards rather than a demo.